Kerry has all the delegates he needs to get the nomination, but he hasn't yet been officially nominated. After what happened in New Jersey two years ago, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility for the Democrats to switch horses in the middle of the Presidential race. It would, however, be a bad idea.

Democrats cannot look back at 2002 without experiencing sharp pain. For the first time in uncountable years, the Republicans gained control of both houses of the Congress while also controlling the Executive office.

While the Democrat's strategy in New Jersey worked (Lautenburg did win the election) the nationwide reaction to the move was less than favorable. It can be arguably demonstrated that a major part of the reason the Democrats lost so many races that year was due to their underhanded tactics in that small East-coast state. Americans across the land couldn't prevent Lautenburg from winning, but they could -- and did -- express their disgust by voting against their local Democratic candidates.

In 2004, the Democrats need to look at the big picture. Yes, they could probably replace Kerry if his numbers (which aren't really that bad) decline to the point of no return. But in doing so, they risk losing any chance of retaking the Senate or the House. It's their gig, though, and the way they've been playing it lately doesn't give one much confidence.

Hat Tips: Instapundit found the Village Voice piece. Hugh Hewitt floated the Toricelli Option idea two weeks ago.

Update: Dale Franks has more.